Thursday, December 29, 2011

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Red Message

Bulletin No. BOB 05/2011/28
Dated: 29.12. 2011 Time of issue:1630 hours IST

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Red Message.

The very severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved westward and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 29th December 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 81.70E, about 180 km east of Puducherry, 180 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early morning of 30th December 2011.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) Intensity

29-12-2011/1430 12.0/81.7 130-140 gusting to 155 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1730 12.0/81.3 130-140 gusting to 155 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/2330 12.0/80.6 120-130 gusting to 145 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0530 12.0/79.9 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1130 12.0/79.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/2330 12.0/77.8 55-65 gusting to 75 Cyclonic Storm
31-12-2011/1130 12.0/76.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Deep Depression
31-12-2011/2330 12.0/75.0 30-40 gusting to 50 Low pressure area

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (25cm or more) would occur over north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would also occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema and isolated heavy rainfall would occur over south Tamil Nadu during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts. The wind speed will increase gradually becoming 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph along and off north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast from today night onwards.
Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.
Sea condition is very rough. It will gradually become very high to phenomenal along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised not to venture into sea during next 48 hrs.
Damage expected (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Extensive damage to thatched roof and huts. Minor damage to power and communication line due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes. Storm is expected to damage the standing rice, groundnut and maize in coastal districts of Tamilnadu and rice and groundnut in coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Action suggested (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer place. People in affected areas to remain indoors. Farmers are advised to drain out excess water from the field to prevent crop damage. Taller crops like banana, leaves may be removed and extra physical support may be given.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 29th December, 2011.

(IMD, Govt. of India)

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